Odds you can feel
Probability and expected value, and the specific places where gut instinct reliably misreads them.
Audio edition
FindingX
The Mathematics of Better Decisions
The decisions that matter usually arrive with missing numbers, a deadline, and a room full of confident opinions. This book covers the handful of mathematical ideas that actually help in that room, worked through in plain language with problems you already recognize.
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Kindle edition
Inside
What the book works through
Stay or switch
The Monty Hall problem, and what it teaches about updating a decision when new information shows up.
When others are deciding too
Game theory from the prisoner's dilemma onward, for the calls that depend on what the other side does.
Lines, waits, and capacity
Queueing, and why one more server or one more approval step changes far more than it looks like it should.
Picking the best mix
Optimization under real constraints: limited hours, limited budget, and priorities that compete.
Deciding alongside AI
A closing look at what changes, and what stubbornly does not, when the machine has an opinion too.
Technically correct is not the same as useful. That gap is the whole subject of the book. The math is only worth carrying into a meeting if it changes what you do next, so every idea here arrives attached to a decision somebody actually has to make.
Readers
Who it is for
Engineering and program leads
People who have to defend a schedule, a trade study, or a staffing call to a room that will push back.
Founders and owners
Anyone making capacity, pricing, and priority calls with thin data and no analytics team behind them.
Students and the curious
Readers who liked the idea of probability and optimization but never saw them used on anything that mattered.
Solve for the decision in front of you
Listen to the audio edition above, then take the book with you.
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